"Production is still going up for almost every region in every crop," Lobell said.
The paper calculates that about 6.4 per cent of global price increases for agricultural commodities are due to climate change. Because Canadian yield gains aren't being slowed yet, Canadian farmers get to reap the benefits without paying the price.
"Canadian farmers are probably a little bit better off than they would have been without climate change," Lobell said.
"That doesn't in any way say that that will continue, but it does point to the fact that there are winners and losers in any situation where you're affecting agriculture differentially across the world."
Meanwhile, BMO Economics is forecasting that Canada's agricultural sector will grow 3.5 to 4 per cent this year after two years of negative growth, thanks largely to the global economic recovery.
Demand from emerging market economies, like China and India, is helping drive commodity prices to two-and three-year highs, the study found. Biofuels production is also rising, which is increasing the price of wheat, corn and canola, used as feedstock for biofuels. The livestock sector should also see a rebound in 2011, after suffering from disease issues and trade restrictions since 2003 and a global recession in 2009.
Despite the challenges of recent record Prairie flooding and higher input prices, the effect of improved demand and expected increases in production should make 2011 a good year for most Canadian farmers, BMO concludes.
from Western Investor June 2011
