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Saskatchewan, Alberta will lead economic growth into 2024

Saskatchewan will see a resource-fuelled surge of 7.6 per cent this year to top all provinces, Conference Board of Canada forecasts
Saskatchewan had 48 drill rigs working as of August 15, 2022, compared to 35 a year earlier. | SaskToday.

Saskatchewan will lead all provinces in economic growth over the next two years, with a stunning 7.6 per cent expansion in 2022, according to the latest provincial outlook from the Conference Board of Canada, with Alberta in second place.

The latest projection is for a stronger performance than the Conference  Board expected in June, when it said Saskatchewan would see growth in the 6 per cent range this year, compared with 2021.

This year’s economic performance reflects that the Prairie province is coming off a low level a year earlier. Saskatchewan was the only province in Canada to have real GDP decline in 2021.

The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), in report at the end of the second quarter, also called Saskatchewan to see the sharpest growth ramp in 2022.

“We project growth will be strongest in Saskatchewan (up 6 per cent), Alberta (up 5.7 per cent) and Manitoba (4.8 per cent),” stated the report from RBC Economics.” We have British Columbia (4.2 per cent ), Ontario (4.1 per cent) and Quebec (3.6 per cent) in the middle of the pack, with Atlantic provinces trailing.”

The Conference Board of Canada, in a new report that looks at the provincial economies through to 2024, says the Prairie provinces will likely be the top economic performers this year, with Saskatchewan leading and Alberta in second place at 4.9 per cent growth this year, compared to 2021.

The surging oil and gas sector will propel the Saskatchewan and Alberta economies through 2024, the Conference Board says.

Saskatchewan boasts the second-lowest net-debt-to-GDP ratio in the country, and a relatively young population and rising immigration leave the province’s fiscal outlook positive, the Conference Board added.

The Saskatchewan government now forecasts revenue to be $19.17 billion in fiscal 2022-23, up $2.02 billion (11.7 per cent) from provincial budget forecasts.
“This increase is largely due to a $1.86 billion increase in resource revenue, reflecting higher potash and oil prices,” according to provincial Finance Minister Donna Harpauer.

At first quarter, Saskatchewan was forecasting a surplus of $1.04 billion for 2022-23, a $1.51 billion improvement from budget estimates.