Homebuying affordability is "unlikely to improve meaningfully" over the next two years, according to a new report from Desjardins.
Over the last 25 years, home prices in Canada have ballooned four times while disposable income has only slightly more than doubled, stated the May 14 report.
Desjardins said the dream of home ownership is being chased further and further away for an average Canadian due to the widening affordability gap.
Due to high rent inflation between 2022 and 2024, it now takes about six years for the average Canadian household to save a 20 per cent down payment, with longer timelines for British Columbians, at 7.5 years.
The average Canadian disposable household income is approximately $114,000 after taxes. Meanwhile, average home prices — even after recent market corrections — remain at or above $1 million in many regions.
Skyrocketing home prices had the biggest impact on affordability in the early pandemic years. Even low mortgage rates and rising household disposable income in 2024 "weren't enough to offset the downward trend," said the Desjardins report.
“Benchmark prices consistently exceed what the average household can afford to pay in several provinces. So, when first-time homebuyers thought they got to where they needed, the bar had moved,” Kari Norman, an economist at Desjardins, told Western Investor.
As the global trade war slows economic growth, interest rates are expected to keep falling this year, helping lower mortgage costs. The housing market should stay soft through 2025, with a rebound likely in 2026, depending on the province, according to the report.
“Most of the country average home prices are close to their recent peaks or at their recent peaks. In Vancouver in particular, the average selling price has declined but still over $1 million. We are well into a buyer’s market. We are seeing more new listings than there are sales,” said Norman.
She added it’s feasible to get into the market in larger cities such as Vancouver, though that doesn’t necessarily make it affordable. It will still take 7.5 years to save for a down payment, she said.
Federally, the Build Canada Homes initiative promises “to get the federal government back into the business of building homes,” according to the Liberal platform posted to the party’s official website.
The proposed GST exemption for first-time homebuyers on new homes up to $1 million may lead to increased demand, which could then drive up selling prices, noted the report.
“We will see support for buyers but the problem by focusing only on buyers is that once you make it easier more buyers to get into the market, they start bidding against each other. The key will be to increase the supply and as well as the demand,” said Norman.
