British Columbia is expected to benefit from improved economic conditions in key trading nations in the coming year, according to the latest forecasts from the country's leading economists. Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist for BMO Capital Markets, is among the most optimistic about B.C.'s economy in 2013. He predicts the province's GDP growth rate will be 2.4 per cent. His forecast is notably higher than the 1.8 per cent increase predicted for the Canadian economy this year.
"It's been fairly typical that we have B.C. growing a bit above the national average, not just in the last year or two but for the last 10 years," Porter told Business in Vancouver on the sidelines of a BMO conference for advisers.
Forecasts from the other big-five banks and Central 1 Credit Union for B.C. GDP growth range between 1.9 per cent and 2.3 per cent. Warren Jestin, chief economist at Scotiabank, has a more subdued 2013 forecast for the province: 1.8 per cent.
While even the most optimistic forecasts are sluggish compared with historical norms, most economists expected B.C.'s economy to improve this year and next based on an increased demand for key exports from the province's main international markets.
RBC noted that the province should start to see the benefits of the federal government's eight-year, $8 billion order for seven non-combat ships being built by Vancouver's Seaspan Marine and the $3.3 billion upgrade of Rio Tinto-Alcan's aluminum smelter in Kitimat.
The province's forestry sector is also likely to continue to improve. Lumber prices are approaching five-year highs, and Jestin said that the U.S. market "is going to surprise on the upside, so that could push prices even farther."
from Western Investor February 2013
